2015 to 2026, from the register
Dubai property prices over ten years
Three things are true at once, and most coverage of this market picks one. A square foot in Dubai costs 75.1% more than it did in 2015. The price people actually pay has barely moved since 2021. And the median home sold is 33.1% smaller than it was then.
Prices are up. Ticket prices are not.
Since 2021, the median registered price per square foot for a Dubai home has gone from 1,017 to 1,716 dirhams, +68.7%. Over the same years the median price actually paid went from 1,350,000 to 1,328,000, -1.6%.
Both are measured the same way on the same population, so the gap between them is not a method artefact. It is the third line: the median home sold went from 1,202 square feet to 804. Buyers are spending about the same and getting materially less space for it.
It is not just off-plan
The obvious explanation is the mix: off-plan went from 45.6% of registered home sales in 2021 to 74.4% now, and off-plan skews towards smaller units. That is real and it amplifies the headline. It is not the whole story, because the same thing happens inside every segment on its own.
| 2021 to 2026 | Median size | Size | Per sqft | Price paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every home | 1,202 to 804 | -33.1% | +68.7% | -1.6% |
| Ready homes only, no off-plan | 1,406 to 929 | -33.9% | +62.6% | 0% |
| Off-plan only | 1,036 to 779 | -24.8% | +44.5% | -1.9% |
| Flats only | 910 to 766 | -15.8% | +51.7% | +21.4% |
| Villas only | 2,553 to 2,015 | -21.1% | +115% | +72.7% |
Ready homes, with off-plan excluded entirely, shrank at least as much as the market as a whole while the price paid for them stayed flat. Flats shrank on their own. Villas shrank on their own. Whatever is happening is happening inside each segment, not only between them.
What this still does not mean
Nobody’s flat has shrunk. A median describes the homes that changed hands, not the housing stock, and reading it as the second is the mistake this page is trying to prevent rather than make. Newer buildings being built smaller is as much a supply story as a demand one, and this data cannot separate the two. What it can say, and does, is that a buyer today gets materially less floor for the same money than a buyer in 2021 did.
So is the Dubai market falling?
Not by the measure that answers it. Price per square foot, which is the like-for-like comparison, has risen every year since 2021. What has stopped rising is the typical cheque, and that is a different fact about a different thing. Anybody telling you the market has crashed on the strength of a flat median price is comparing a 1,202 square foot home to a 804 square foot one.
None of which tells you what one specific property is worth, which is the only number that matters when you are buying one. That is a question about its building, and the register answers it per building.
Year by year
| Year | Sales | Median per sqft | Median price | Median size | Off-plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 34,042 | 980 | 1,200,000 | 1,063 | 35.7% |
| 2016 | 32,450 | 981 | 1,110,830 | 1,014 | 46.2% |
| 2017 | 36,616 | 1,001 | 1,151,888 | 1,050 | 53.7% |
| 2018 | 25,894 | 1,030 | 1,010,810 | 908 | 52.9% |
| 2019 | 31,602 | 965 | 1,183,980 | 1,043 | 60.3% |
| 2020 | 27,268 | 910 | 1,137,959 | 1,090 | 47.9% |
| 2021 | 48,291 | 1,017 | 1,350,000 | 1,202 | 45.6% |
| 2022 | 75,991 | 1,281 | 1,450,000 | 1,016 | 53.7% |
| 2023 | 109,779 | 1,411 | 1,440,000 | 910 | 59.5% |
| 2024 | 156,126 | 1,553 | 1,422,370 | 868 | 67.6% |
| 2025 | 183,097 | 1,685 | 1,390,000 | 826 | 71.5% |
| 2026(part year) | 104,039 | 1,716 | 1,328,000 | 804 | 74.4% |
Before you talk to anyone
Found a property? Check the price against the register first.
Paste any listing you are considering, from anywhere. We compare the asking price against what comparable homes actually sold for on the Dubai Land Department register and tell you plainly whether it stacks up. Free, and you do not need an account.
Check a propertySource: Dubai Land Department registered transactions, homes only, sales only. Homes exclude land, whole buildings, offices, shops and hotel inventory, because those are a different market; sales exclude mortgage and gift registrations, which are not prices. Price per square foot outliers below 100 and above 20,000 dirhams are excluded as recording errors. The register publishes with a few days of lag, so the current year is always a part year. Figures are as registered and are not an assessment by Dubai Diligence. Our methodology sets out every definition.
