For agents
How to read the registered record like a valuer
Every argument about price in Dubai ends in the same place: what did comparable units actually register at. The record answers that, but only if you read it the way a valuer does rather than the way a brochure does.
Use the median, not the average. One penthouse in a tower of studios drags an average upward by enough to make it useless. The median is the middle transaction, and it describes the typical unit rather than the loudest one.
Price per square foot is what makes two different units comparable, and it is the number to argue from. A 2-bed at AED 2.6M tells you very little on its own; AED 1,940 per square foot against an area median of AED 1,942 tells you the price is ordinary.
Check the sample size before you quote anything. A median built on eleven sales is an anecdote. Anything under about thirty registered transactions in the period should be treated as indicative, and said out loud as such when you show it to a client.
Separate off-plan from ready. They are different markets with different prices, and an area where most sales are off-plan will show a median that no ready buyer can actually transact at.
Common questions
- Why use the median instead of the average?
- One unusually large sale distorts an average badly. The median is the middle transaction, so it describes the typical unit and is far harder to skew.
- How many sales do I need before a number is trustworthy?
- As a working rule, at least thirty registered transactions in the period you are quoting. Below that, present it as indicative and say why.
- Why do off-plan and ready prices differ so much in the same area?
- They are separate markets. Off-plan carries a payment plan and a wait; ready carries immediate use or rent. An area median that mixes them describes neither.
Now do it with real numbers.
Check a real listing against the record